For three decades we have conducted a massive economic
experiment, testing a theory known as supply-side economics. The theory
goes like this: Lower tax rates will encourage more investment, which in
turn will mean more jobs and greater prosperity -- so much so that tax
revenues will go up, despite lower rates. The late Milton Friedman, the
libertarian economist who wanted to shut down public parks because he
considered them socialism, promoted this strategy. Ronald Reagan
embraced Friedman's ideas and made them into policy when he was elected
president in 1980.
For the past decade, we have doubled down on this theory of supply-side
economics with the tax cuts sponsored by President George W Bush in 2001
and 2003, which President Obama has agreed to continue for two years.
You would think that whether this grand experiment worked would be
settled after three decades. You would think the practitioners of the
dismal science of economics would look at their demand curves and the
data on incomes and taxes and pronounce a verdict, the way Galileo and
Copernicus did when they showed that geocentrism was a fantasy because
Earth revolves around the sun (known as heliocentrism). But economics is
not like that. It is not like physics with its laws and arithmetic with
its absolute values.
Tax policy is something the Framers left to politics. And in politics,
the facts often matter less then who has the biggest bullhorn.
The Mad Men who once ran campaigns featuring doctors extolling the
health benefits of smoking are now busy marketing the dogma that tax
cuts mean broad prosperity, no matter what the facts show.
As millions of Americans prepare to file their annual taxes, they do so
in an environment of media-perpetuated tax myths. Here are a few points
about taxes and the economy that you may not know... (All figures are inflation adjusted.)
1: Poor Americans do pay taxes.
Gretchen Carlson, the Fox News host, said last year "47 percent of
Americans don’t pay any taxes." John McCain and Sarah Palin both said
similar things during the 2008 campaign about the bottom half of
Americans.
Ari Fleischer, the former Bush White House spokesman, once said "50
percent of the country gets benefits without paying for them."
Actually, they pay lots of taxes -- just not lots of federal income taxes.
Data from the Tax Foundation shows that, in 2008, the average income for the bottom half of taxpayers was $15,300.
This year, the first $9,350 of income is exempt from taxes for singles
and $18,700 for married couples, just slightly more than in 2008. That
means millions of the poor do not make enough to owe income taxes.
But they still pay plenty of other taxes, including federal payroll
taxes. Between gas taxes, sales taxes, utility taxes and other taxes, no
one lives tax free in America.
When it comes to state and local taxes, the poor bear a heavier burden
than the rich in every state except Vermont, the Institute on Taxation
and Economic Policy calculated from official data. In Alabama, for
example, the burden on the poor is more than twice that of the top 1
percent. The one-fifth of Alabama families making less than $13,000 pay
almost 11 percent of their income in state and local taxes, compared
with less than 4 percent for those who make $229,000 or more.
2: The wealthiest Americans don't carry the burden.
This is one of those oft-used canards. US Sen. Rand Paul, the tea party
favorite from Kentucky, told David Letterman recently that "the wealthy
do pay most of the taxes in this country."
The Internet is awash with statements that the top 1 percent pays,
depending on the year, 38 percent or more than 40 percent of taxes.
It's true that the top 1 percent of wage earners paid 38 percent of the
federal income taxes in 2008 (the most recent year for which data is
available). But people forget that the income tax is less than half of
federal taxes and only one-fifth of taxes at all levels of government.
Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance taxes (known as
payroll taxes) are paid
mostly by the bottom 90 percent of wage earners. That's because, once
you reach $106,800 of income, you pay no more for Social Security,
though the much smaller Medicare tax applies to all wages. Warren
Buffett pays the exact same amount of Social Security taxes as someone
who earns $106,800.
3: In fact, the wealthy are paying less taxes.
The Internal Revenue Service issues an annual report on the 400 highest
income-tax payers. In 1961, there were 398 taxpayers who made $1 million
or more, so I compared their income tax burdens from that year to 2007.
Despite skyrocketing incomes, the federal tax burden on the richest 400
has been slashed, thanks to a variety of loopholes, allowable deductions
and other tools. The actual share of their income paid in taxes,
according to the IRS, is 16.6 percent. Adding payroll taxes barely
nudges that number.
Compare that to the vast majority of Americans, whose share of their
income going to federal taxes increased from 13.1 percent in 1961 to
22.5 percent in 2007.
(By the way, during seven of the eight Bush years, the IRS report on the
top 400 taxpayers was labeled a state secret, a policy that Obama
overturned almost instantly after his inauguration.)
4: Many of the very richest pay no current income taxes at all.
John Paulson, the most successful hedge fund manager of all, bet against
the mortgage market one year and then bet with Glenn Beck in the gold
market the next. Paulson made himself $9 billion in fees in just two
years. His current tax bill on that $9 billion? Zero.
Congress lets hedge fund managers earn all they can now and pay their taxes years from now.
In 2007, Congress debated whether hedge fund managers should pay the top
tax rate that applies to wages, bonuses and other compensation for
their labors, which is 35 percent. That tax rate starts at about
$300,000 of taxable income; not even pocket change to Paulson, but
almost 12 years of gross pay to the median-wage worker.
The Republicans and a key Democrat, Sen. Charles Schumer of New York,
fought to keep the tax rate on hedge fund managers at 15 percent,
arguing that the profits from hedge funds should be considered capital
gains, not ordinary income, which got a lot of attention in the news.
What the news media missed is that hedge fund managers don't even pay 15
percent. At least, not currently. So long as they leave their money,
known as "carried interest," in the hedge fund, their taxes are
deferred. They only pay taxes when they cash out, which could be decades
from now for younger managers. How do these hedge fund managers get
money in the meantime? By borrowing against the carried interest, often
at absurdly low rates -- currently about 2 percent.
Lots of other people live tax-free, too. I have Donald Trump's tax
records for four years early in his career. He paid no taxes for two of
those years. Big real-estate investors enjoy tax-free living under a
1993 law President Clinton signed. It lets "professional" real-estate
investors use paper losses like depreciation on their buildings against
any cash income, even if they end up with negative incomes like Trump.
Frank and Jamie McCourt, who own the Los Angeles Dodgers, have not paid
any income taxes since at least 2004, their divorce case revealed. Yet
they spent $45 million one year alone. How? They just borrowed against
Dodger ticket revenue and other assets. To the IRS, they look like
paupers.
In Wisconsin, Terrence Wall, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican
nomination for US Senate in 2010, paid no income taxes on as much as $14
million of recent income, his disclosure forms showed. Asked about his
living tax-free while working people pay taxes, he had a simple
response: Everyone should pay less.
5: And (surprise!) since Reagan, only the wealthy have gained significant income.
The Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute and similar conservative
marketing organizations tell us relentlessly that lower tax rates will
make us all better off.
"When tax rates are reduced, the economy's growth rate improves and
living standards increase," according to Daniel J Mitchell, an economist
at Heritage until he joined Cato. He says that supply-side economics is
"the simple notion that lower tax rates will boost work, saving,
investment and entrepreneurship."
When Reagan was elected president, the marginal tax rate for income was
70 percent. He cut it to 50 percent and then 28 percent starting in
1987. It was raised by George HW Bush and Clinton and then cut by George
W Bush. The top rate is now 35 percent.
Since 1980, when President Reagan won election promising prosperity
through tax cuts, the average income of the vast majority -- the bottom
90 percent of Americans -- has increased a meager $303, or 1 percent.
Put another way, for each dollar people in the vast majority made in
1980, in 2008 their income was up to $1.01.
Those at the top did better. The top 1 percent's average income more
than doubled to $1.1 million, according to an analysis of tax data by
economists Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez. The really rich, the top
10th of 1 percent, each enjoyed almost $4 in 2008 for each dollar in
1980.
The top 300,000 Americans now enjoy almost as much income as the bottom 150 million, the data show.
6: When it comes to corporations, the story is much the same -- less taxes.
Corporate profits in 2008, the latest year for which data is available,
were $1,830 billion, up almost 12 percent from $1,638.7 in 2000. Yet
even though corporate tax rates have not been cut, corporate income-tax
revenues fell to $230 billion from $249 billion—an 8 percent decline,
thanks to a number of loopholes. The official 2010 profit numbers are
not added up and released by the government, but the amount paid in
corporate taxes is: In 2010 they fell further, to $191 billion -- a
decline of more than 23 percent compared with 2000.
7: Some corporate tax breaks destroy jobs.
Despite all the noise that America has the world's second highest
corporate tax rate, the actual taxes paid by corporations are falling
because of the growing number of loopholes and companies shifting
profits to tax havens like the Cayman Islands.
And right now, America's corporations are sitting on close to $2
trillion in cash that is not being used to build factories, create jobs
or anything else, but act as an insurance policy for managers unwilling
to take the risk of actually building the businesses they are paid so
well to run. That cash hoard, by the way, works out to nearly $13,000
per taxpaying household.
A corporate tax rate that is too low actually destroys jobs. That's
because a higher tax rate encourages businesses (who don't want to pay
taxes) to keep the profits in the business and reinvest, rather than
pull them out as profits and have to pay high taxes.
The 2004 American Jobs Creation Act, which passed with bipartisan
support, allowed more than 800 companies to bring profits that were
untaxed but overseas back to the United States. Instead of paying the
usual 35 percent tax, the companies paid just 5.25 percent.
The companies said bringing the money home -- "repatriating" it, they
called it -- would mean lots of jobs. Sen. John Ensign, the Nevada
Republican, put the figure at 660,000 new jobs.
Pfizer, the drug company, was the biggest beneficiary. It brought home
$37 billion, saving $11 billion in taxes. Almost immediately, it started
firing people. Since the law took effect, it has let 40,000 workers go.
In all, it appears that at least 100,000 jobs were destroyed.
Now Congressional Republicans and some Democrats are gearing up again to
pass another tax holiday, promoting a new Jobs Creation Act. It would
affect 10 times as much money as the 2004 law.
8: Republicans like taxes too.
President Reagan signed into law 11 tax increases, targeted at people
down the income ladder. His administration and the Washington press
corps called the increases "revenue enhancers." Among other things,
Reagan hiked Social Security taxes so high that, by the end of 2008, the
government had collected more than $2 trillion in surplus tax. George
W. Bush signed a tax increase, too, in 2006, despite his written
ironclad pledge to never raise taxes on anyone.
It raised taxes on teenagers by requiring kids up to age 17, who earned
money, to pay taxes at their parents' tax rate, which would almost
always be higher than the rate they would otherwise pay. It was a story
that ran buried inside
The New York Times one Sunday, but nowhere else.
In fact, thanks to Republicans, one in three Americans will pay higher taxes this year than they did last year.
First, some history. In 2009, President Obama pushed his own tax cut --
for the working class. He persuaded Congress to enact the Making Work
Pay tax credit. Over the two years 2009 and 2010, it saved single
workers up to $800 and married heterosexual couples up to $1,600, even
if only one spouse worked. The top 5 percent or so of taxpayers were
denied this tax break.
The Obama administration called it "the biggest middle-class tax cut"
ever. Yet last December, the Republicans, poised to regain control of
the House of Representatives, killed Obama's Making Work Pay credit
while extending the Bush tax cuts for two more years -- a policy Obama
agreed to.
By doing so, Congressional Republican leaders increased taxes on a third
of Americans, virtually all of them the working poor, this year.
As a result, of the 155 million households in the tax system, 51 million
will pay an average of $129 more this year. That is $6.6 billion in
higher taxes for the working poor, the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center
estimated.
In addition, the Republicans changed the rate of workers' FICA
contributions, which finances half of Social Security. The result:
If you are single and make less than $20,000, or married and make less than $40,000, you lose under this plan.
But the top 5 percent, people who make more than $106,800, will save $2,136 ($4,272 for two-career couples).
9: Other countries do it better.
We measure our economic progress, and our elected leaders debate tax
policy, in terms of a crude measure known as gross domestic product. The
way the official statistics are put together, each dollar spent buying
solar energy equipment counts the same as each dollar spent
investigating murders.
We do not give any measure of value to time spent rearing children or
growing our own vegetables or to time off for leisure and community
service.
And we do not measure the economic damage done by shocks, such as losing
a job, which means not only loss of income and depletion of savings,
but loss of health insurance, which a Harvard Medical School study found
results in 45,000 unnecessary deaths each year.
Compare this to Germany, one of many countries with a smarter tax system and smarter spending policies.
Germans work less, make more per hour and get much better parental leave
than Americans, many of whom get no fringe benefits such as health
care, pensions or even a retirement savings plan. By many measures, the
vast majority live better in Germany than in America.
To achieve this, German singles on average pay 52 percent of their
income in taxes. Americans average 30 percent, according to the
Organizations for Economic Cooperation and Development.
At first blush the German tax burden seems horrendous. But in Germany
(as well as Britain, France, Scandinavia, Canada, Australia and Japan),
tax-supported institutions provide many of the things Americans pay for
with after-tax dollars. Buying wholesale rather than retail saves money.
A proper comparison would take the 30 percent average tax on American
workers and add their out-of-pocket spending on health care, college
tuition and fees for services and compare that with taxes that the
average German pays.
Add it all up and the combination of tax and personal spending is
roughly equal in both countries, but with a large risk of catastrophic
loss in America, and a tiny risk in Germany.
Americans take on $85 billion of debt each year for higher education,
while college is financed by taxes in Germany and tuition is cheap to
free in other modern countries. While soaring medical costs are a key
reason that, since 1980, bankruptcy in America has increased 15 times
faster than population growth, no one in Germany or the rest of the
modern world goes broke because of accident or illness. And child
poverty in America is the highest among modern countries -- almost twice
the rate in Germany, which is close to the average of modern countries.
On the corporate tax side, the Germans encourage reinvestment at home
and the outsourcing of low-value work, like auto assembly, and German
rules tightly control accounting so that profits earned at home cannot
be made to appear as profits earned in tax havens.
Adopting the German system is not the answer for America. But crafting a
tax system that benefits the vast majority, reduces risks, provides
universal health care and focuses on diplomacy rather than militarism
abroad (and at home) would be a lot smarter than what we have now.
Here is a question to ask yourself: We started down this road with
Reagan’s election in 1980 and upped the ante in this century with George
W Bush.
How long does it take to conclude that a policy has failed to fulfill
its promises? And as you think of that, keep in mind George Washington.
When he fell ill, his doctors followed the common wisdom of the era.
They cut him and bled him to remove bad blood. As Washington's condition
grew worse, they bled him more. And like the mantra of tax cuts for the
rich, they kept applying the same treatment until they killed him.
Luckily, we don't bleed the sick anymore, but we are bleeding our government to death.
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